May 10, 2010

This is it.. It is election day, today, and of course, the news centers on it.



The main headline on the Phil. Daily Inquirer is a projection on the voter turnout (85% voter turnout seen. Melo: Don’t be afraid; don’t sell votes). Personally, I predict a low voter turnout as I know that votes in the past are padded, but the Inquirer took what is supposedly COMELEC's word on it. From my point of view, a high voter turnout benefits those leading in the surveys (if the surveys are real). So could this headline be trying to benefit someone? Although it might, I do not have enough information to call that.

The next news under the same banner talked about IT experts led by "whistle blower" Jun Lozada (IT experts warn of ‘implosion’). Immediately, the news lost its credibility as the paper seem to have accorded expert status to some people loosely. Again, if some camp benefits from a notion that the elections may not be credible, then the Inquirer is doing them a favor. But again, we cannot call it that as we do not have enough data to support it. That is the advantage when mass media is working with you.. you can send out messages to people subtly without anyone knowing you've influenced them at all. I would like to note also the quote of the word "implosion" in the title which is not used in the report itself. I am sure it is there for something which I cannot identify, yet.

A special coverage on Estrada's election jitters (Estrada feels jitters, sees feng shui experts) and accompanying rituals graced the front page today. Surely, that piece favored him a lot on the day of elections.

Still, there is a news report on some final words coming from the presidentiables except Villanueva (Presidential bets make final plea). The report from each candidate comes in almost the same order as the surveys, presumably in order of importance, so we could say that it benefits Aquino most.

There is a news report about the AFP which features also interviews with other officials (Bangit appeals to nation: Trust me, trust AFP) and which seems devoid of any favor to any of the candidates. I find it refreshingly positive for the government though.

Lastly, the Inquirer today gave Amando Doronila again front page space merely to say he is more concerned about the automation (Analysis: Poll success awaited more than winners) than who is going to win the elections. He uncharacteristically gave much credence to surveys and was very much assured that the LP bet is going to win the elections.

This is why, at the close of the campaign period on Saturday, Filipinos appeared more concerned about the success of the automated system than about who will be the next elected president in a free and honest balloting.

Reputable surveys over the month of April and up to May 2-3 showed that Liberal Party presidential candidate Benigno Aquino III was leading his rivals by a wide margin.

The May survey, conducted by Social Weather Stations, the last one before Election Day, saw Aquino widening his lead with 42 percent, 22 percentage points ahead of the runner-up. Former President Estrada got 20 percent and Sen. Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party garnered 19 percent. The startling result was that Estrada raced past Villar.

Unless the surveys are grossly inaccurate and a cataclysmic event occurs to derail the Aquino momentum, there is little to indicate that either Estrada or Villar can catch up with Aquino’s wide margin.

Uncommitted voters

By last week, 6 percent of the 41 million people expected to vote were uncommitted. A last-minute shift of uncommitted voters to either Estrada or Villar, or the rest of the contenders, is an unrealistic expectation.

He also gave undue credence to forums where issues were supposedly tackled:

Debates on policy issues had been worked over at numerous forums attended by most of the candidates.

He also gave newspapers a thumbs-up while giving the opposite to internet sources including bloggers:

At these forums, newspapers proved to be the most useful medium for discussion of serious issues. They will continue to render this useful function in public enlightenment despite the depredations and competition of broadcast media.

The latest predators in information dissemination, the tweeters and bloggers, are no more than scavengers of gossips, rumors and unverified information.

There is not a doubt in my mind who Doronila and the Inquirer favored in this piece.

So, I think the Inquirer front page today favored Aquino, followed by Estrada who is slightly behind, and then the rest of the pack, except Villanueva who is not covered.

The score:

Aquino: 15
Estrada: 2
Teodoro: 1
Villanueva: 1
Madrigal: 1
Villar: 1
Delos Reyes: 1
Perlas: 1
Gordon: 0